Monthly Archives: January 2013

Understanding Hysteresis

Posted on January 31, 2013 by ozidar

I presented these slides on Blanchard and Summers 1986 yesterday at the Berkeley Macro lunch. If you are interested in Hysteresis, this is one of the seminal papers in the literature. Overview  Periods of persistently high unemployment are not uncommon events in … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

STEM workers, H1B Visas and Productivity in US Cities

Posted on January 30, 2013 by ozidar

Here’s a new and very timely paper from Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, and Chad Sparber. ABSTRACT: Scientists, Technology professionals, Engineers and Mathematicians (STEM workers) are the fundamental inputs in scientific innovation and technological adoption which, in turn, the main drivers of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 6 Comments

Quick Comments Welcome – Tax Cuts for Whom Draft

Posted on January 30, 2013 by ozidar

I’m planning on submitting this paper soon after making a few minor corrections and running a couple robustness checks, so please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions on it in the next week or two. Thanks! ABSTRACT: This … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

US Household Debt has Fallen by $833 billion since 2008

Posted on January 29, 2013 by ozidar

US Household Debt has Fallen by $833 billion since 2008 according to McKinsey. The decline is largely through defaults. HT: Susan Lund

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 15 Comments

Historical Hysteresis: Adverse Shocks vs Structural Problems

Posted on January 28, 2013 by ozidar

I started posting last week on the Summers & Blanchard paper, which is on hysteresis and the Unemployment problem in Europe starting in the mid 1970s. Many advocated structural explanations for hysteresis, but Summers & Blanchard looked to the Great Depression period … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gone Skiing

Posted on January 26, 2013 by ozidar

Back Monday

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Do Dividend Tax Cuts Increase Investment and Hiring?

Posted on January 25, 2013 by ozidar

Abstract: Policymakers frequently propose to use capital tax reform to stimulate investment and increase labor earnings. This paper tests for such real impacts of the 2003 dividend tax cut – one of the largest reforms ever to a U.S. capital … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Hysteresis & the Unemployment Problem

Posted on January 24, 2013 by ozidar

Summers and Blanchard have a paper on Hysteresis in Europe in the 1980s in which they discuss three main potential causes of hysteresis, which is a very high dependence of current employment on past unemployment. The three causes are (1) physical … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

A Quick Reaction to Matt Yglesias’s Healthcare Chart

Posted on January 23, 2013 by ozidar

Here’s a chart that Matt Yglesias thinks ought to dominate the healthcare conversation. It compares PPP adjusted per capita government* spending on healthcare in the US and in Canada. When I saw it this morning, I thought that it looks … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

An argument for studying macroeconomics

Posted on January 22, 2013 by ozidar

Rather than answering million or billion dollar questions like microeconomists, macroeconomists try to answer trillion dollar questions. E.G. Why is actual output below potential output & when (or will) it come back to trend? From Yuriy Gorodnichenko (both the idea … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment