Tag Archives: Uncertainty

The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Texas Oil Drilling

From Ryan Kellogg: This paper estimates the response of investment to changes in uncertainty using data on oil drilling in Texas and the expected volatility of the future price of oil. Using a dynamic model of firms’ investment problem, I find … Continue reading

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Labs of Democracy & Today’s Fiscal Policy Debates

Here’s my latest Economix column on the labs of democracy & today’s fiscal policy debates on uncertainty, spending, and spending vs taxes: Many of the fiercest disagreements about fiscal policy today stem from disagreements about the causes of the slow … Continue reading

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Links for Today: Heckman on Head Start and Mian & Sufi SF Fed paper

1. Heckman on early childhood education 2. Mian and Sufi: Aggregate Demand and State-Level Employment   

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When are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty Large?

Benjamin Johannsen, a job market candidate from Northwestern, weighs in: ABSTRACT: I argue that fiscal policy uncertainty can have large and adverse effects when the monetary authority is constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Using a new-Keynesian … Continue reading

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