Tag Archives: 2012

Facts are Stubborn Things: High Income Tax Rates and Job Creation

Throughout the campaign and through the fiscal cliff discussions, Republicans have consistently espoused the idea that modestly raising top marginal rates will destroy job creation. For instance, here is Sen Lindsey Gram from ABC’s “This Week”, “[T]o avoid becoming Greece, … Continue reading

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The Rising Incumbent Reelection Rate: What’s Gerrymandering Got to Do With It?

I’ve been thinking about reasons why Republicans have maintained control of the House. One story is gerrymandering, but according to this paper by John Friedman and Richard Holden, gerrymandering has been declining in its importance over the last half-century: ABSTRACT: The … Continue reading

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Are Pollsters Asking the Wrong Question?

Here’s an interesting new take on election polling from Justin Wolfers In a recent academic research paper,  David Rothschild and I examined the results of a different kind of poll, one that asks instead: “Who do you think will win?” We find convincing evidence … Continue reading

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State by State Polling is Looking Pretty Good for the President

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How the Electoral College Influences Campaigns and Policy

Here’s a cool paper that “analyzes how US presidential candidates should allocate resources across states to maximize the probability of winning the election, by developing and estimating a probabilistic-voting model of political competition under the Electoral College system.” Actual campaigns act in close … Continue reading

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Jonathan Chait’s Case for Obama

The Case for Obama: Why He is a Great President. Yes, Great.  I decided to support Barack Obama pretty early in the Democratic primary, around spring of 2007. But unlike so many of his supporters, I never experienced a kind … Continue reading

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Electoral Vote Forecast from Votamatic

A friend told me about this site today – looks pretty interesting (and roughly consistent with 538).

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Tax Cuts for Whom? Heterogeneous Effects of Income Tax Changes on Growth & Employment

Here are slides from my 10/1/2012 presentation at Berkeley. Abstract: This paper investigates how tax changes for different income groups affect macroeconomic activity. Using historical tax return data from NBER’s TAXSIM, I construct a measure of who received (or who paid … Continue reading

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Christy Romer’s thoughts on the Economic Issues in the 2012 Election

Worth a read.

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Hard to debate a Moving Target (and other reasons why Romney won the debate tonight)

Romney won. Here’s why: 1. It’s hard to hit a moving target: When the President came ready to take on Romney’s $5 trillion tax plan, Romney simply changed his plan in real time. While this might make for good flip … Continue reading

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