Monthly Archives: January 2013

Understanding Hysteresis

I presented these slides on Blanchard and Summers 1986 yesterday at the Berkeley Macro lunch. If you are interested in Hysteresis, this is one of the seminal papers in the literature. Overview  Periods of persistently high unemployment are not uncommon events in … Continue reading

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STEM workers, H1B Visas and Productivity in US Cities

Here’s a new and very timely paper from Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, and Chad Sparber. ABSTRACT: Scientists, Technology professionals, Engineers and Mathematicians (STEM workers) are the fundamental inputs in scientific innovation and technological adoption which, in turn, the main drivers of the … Continue reading

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Quick Comments Welcome – Tax Cuts for Whom Draft

I’m planning on submitting this paper soon after making a few minor corrections and running a couple robustness checks, so please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions on it in the next week or two. Thanks! ABSTRACT: This … Continue reading

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US Household Debt has Fallen by $833 billion since 2008

US Household Debt has Fallen by $833 billion since 2008 according to McKinsey. The decline is largely through defaults. HT: Susan Lund

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Historical Hysteresis: Adverse Shocks vs Structural Problems

I started posting last week on the Summers & Blanchard paper, which is on hysteresis and the Unemployment problem in Europe starting in the mid 1970s. Many advocated structural explanations for hysteresis, but Summers & Blanchard looked to the Great Depression period … Continue reading

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Gone Skiing

Back Monday

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Do Dividend Tax Cuts Increase Investment and Hiring?

Abstract: Policymakers frequently propose to use capital tax reform to stimulate investment and increase labor earnings. This paper tests for such real impacts of the 2003 dividend tax cut – one of the largest reforms ever to a U.S. capital … Continue reading

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