Monthly Archives: October 2012

How the Electoral College Influences Campaigns and Policy

Here’s a cool paper that “analyzes how US presidential candidates should allocate resources across states to maximize the probability of winning the election, by developing and estimating a probabilistic-voting model of political competition under the Electoral College system.” Actual campaigns act in close … Continue reading

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Jonathan Chait’s Case for Obama

The Case for Obama: Why He is a Great President. Yes, Great.  I decided to support Barack Obama pretty early in the Democratic primary, around spring of 2007. But unlike so many of his supporters, I never experienced a kind … Continue reading

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Electoral Vote Forecast from Votamatic

A friend told me about this site today – looks pretty interesting (and roughly consistent with 538).

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Enrico Moretti on the Future of Manufacturing

Q: Both presidential candidates pledge to restore the U.S. manufacturing industry. Some economists say that’s essential; others say it’s impossible. What’s your take?  A: The last two years have been good years for manufacturing employment, but they are the exception. … Continue reading

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How much higher would taxes have to be to fund all state and local pension promises? ~1,400 per household per year

Robert Novy-Marx and Josh Rauh have a new NBER working paper out that suggests that filling the pension gap for state and local governments costs roughly ~1,400 per household every year.  We calculate increases in contributions required to achieve full … Continue reading

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What determines productivity? The management practices hypothesis

Both as part of the third year labor group with David Card and the macro reading group with Yuriy Gododnichenko, we’ve been thinking a lot about productivity and why some firms are more productive than others. This issue is key to understanding why we observe … Continue reading

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5 Videos I want to watch

Krugman and Stiglitz Larry Summers et al at the Economist’s Buttonwood 2012 Stanford’s SIEPER talk on California’s fiscal health Ray Dalio explains his basic macro framework Kennedy Nixon Debate

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